Weekly energy supply data from the EIA

  • Prior was 2784K
  • Cushing +1520K
  • Gasoline -1231K vs -500K expected
  • Distillates -1647K vs -1000K expected
  • Refinery utilization -0.6%
  • Oil production -0.3% w/w
  • Production at 8.802 mbpd vs 8.825 mbpd last week (down 23K bpd)
  • Production down 6.1% y/y
  • Imports 7.655 mbpd vs 7.660 mbpd prior, down 0.1% w/w
  • Imports up 11.2% y/y

Massive miss. The market was looking for a build of around 3m barrels yet it was a draw. You'd have to think the API models screwed up somehow because of the Alberta fires.

Oil and the Canadian dollar are rallying on the news. It's even spilling over to broader risk and USD/JPY.

Here was the Stockpile data for oil via API's weekly survey:

  • Crude build of 3.45 mln barrels
  • Cushing build 1.46mln barrels
  • Gasoline +271K barrels
  • Distillate -1.36mln bbls

That's a better measure of what was expected in the market than the analyst survey.