Reuters poll results:

  • 54 of 81 economists polled see hike in June or sooner
  • An overwhelming majority of economists see the Fed hiking in Q3
  • Most economists see two hikes this year
  • Economists see 15% probability of recession
  • Q1 media growth forecast 1.2%
  • 2016 growth seen at 2.0%

The Fed is forecasting two hikes this year but the market don't believe it. The Fed funds futures imply just a 15% chance of a hike in June and 14.6% chance of two hikes before year end.