What's on the economic calendar
It's a doozy of the week that starts slowly with UK and US holidays on Monday but then ramps up quickly with top-tier economic data into the calendar every day.
Monday
0645 GMT - French Q1 preliminary GDP.
The second largest economy in the Eurozone is expected to grow a solid 0.5% q/q in Q1 and 1.3% q/q.
Various times - German inflation
Germany reports regional inflation numbers throughout the day on Monday, starting around 0700 and culminating in the national number around midday in Germany. The consensus is for a 0.3% m/m rise in prices, which will pull the y/y reading back into positive territory at 0.1%.
Tuesday
2330 GMT (late Monday but Tuesday in Japan) - Japanese household spending and industrial production.
Japanese data has been all over the place lately, including strong GDP, trade and machine orders numbers. Abe will announce a delay in the consumption tax Monday but these are the top numbers on the calendar.
0130 GMT - Australian building approvals
The Australian housing machine is slowing with approvals expected down 6.7% y/y. It's not a big market mover but AUD traders are unsure when the RBA will cut.
0600 GMT - German retail sales
The first of two big German releases on Tuesday.
0645 GMT - French CPI
Prices are expected down 0.1% y/y despite a 0.3% m/m rise. With German CPI the day before, this will paint a clearer picture of where inflation is heading. Two soft numbers could put ECB action back on the agenda but they'd have to be very weak.
0755 GMT - German employment
In an economic data quirk, Germany reports on the change in unemployment, rather than employment. In any case, the number of unemployment people is expected to fall by 5,000.
1230 GMT - US PCE
The PCE report includes personal spending, income and inflation numbers. All three are important and kick off a busy finish to the week for US economic data
1230 GMT - Canadian GDP
This is the first reading on Q1 Canadian GDP but the January and Feb monthly numbers were strong. The consensus is for a 2.8% quarterly annualized rise.
1400 - US consumer confidence and the Chicago PMI
Manufacturing numbers have been roundly weak in the latest US cycle but the Fed is more worried about consumers so the confidence number will win out.
Wednesday
2350 GMT - Japanese capital spending
Will Abenomics finally get companies spending? Capital spending is expected up 1.9% y/y in the first quarter.
0100 GMT - China manufacturing PMI
No one ever really knows exactly how the Chinese economy is doing but worries have ebbed in the past two months. The consensus is 50.0. The Caixin reading is due 45 minutes later and is expected at 49.2.
0130 GMT - Australian GDP
This is a big one. The consensus is for a solid 0.6% q/q rise, which should be enough to send the RBA to the sidelines, at least for a few months.
0830 GMT - Markit UK manufacturing PMI
The May reading is expected to improve to 49.6 from 49.2. It's tough to get the focus off the Brexit vote but this should provide a short reprieve.
Various times - Eurozone manufacturing PMIs
Look for these to roll out throughout the session. Focus on Germany and the aggregate number.
1400 GMT - ISM manufacturing
The consensus is 50.4 but the consensus is also that the Fed doesn't care that much about factories.
Thursday
0130 GMT - Australian trade balance and retail sales
Investment has dried up but they're still extracting miners. Are consumers still spending?
1145 GMT - ECB decision
There are no hints of action this month so the focus will be on the press conference at 1230 GMT. Weak inflation numbers earlier in the week could make it interesting. If not, look for Draghi to try and spread a bit of sunshine.
1215 GMT - ADP employment
This number has struggled to get traction in markets lately. The consensus is +175K
1300 GMT - Carney speaks
It's an event to unveil a new 5 pound note. I expect him to light it on fire and say "that's what will happen if you vote for a Brexit"
Friday
0745 GMT - The Fed's Evans speaks
I'd normally brush this one off but I'm intrigued to hear what the doves have to say ahead of the June 15 FOMC. He's been open to a hike.
0830 GMT - UK services PMI
If it's weak, it will be dismissed on Brexit skews. If it's strong... Rule Brittania
1230 GMT- Nonfarm payrolls
This one is a free roll. If it's soft the market is going to blame the Verizon strike but if it's strong, the June FOMC decision suddenly gets a lot more interesting. Aside from the headline numbers, watch the wage inflation data.
1400 GMT - ISM non-manufacturing and durable goods orders
Couldn't we have saved these for the following week when they could get the attention they deserve?
1630 GMT - The Fed's Brainard
This is touted as a speech on monetary policy so it's one to watch. She's been dovish in the past and could put the brakes on June hike expectations.
