GDP data due from Japan today, preliminary for Q3
Due at 2350GMT
GDP (seasonally adjusted), preliminary, q/q:
- expected -0.1%, prior -0.3%
GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted), preliminary y/y:
- expected -0.2%, prior -1.2%
GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted), preliminary q/q:
- -0.2% expected %, prior +0.1%
GDP Deflator y/y, preliminary:
- expected 1.7%, prior 1.5%
GDP Consumer Spending y/y, preliminary q/q,
- expected is +0.4%, prior was -0.7%
GDP Business Spending y/y, preliminary q/q:
- -0.5% expected, prior was -0.9%
Q2 was a contraction, a Q3 contraction will confirm the 'technical' recession. If its a negative print it will hardly be a surprise and the yen impact should not be big, if there is much at all. We'll get calls for more fiscal and monetary stimules (there has been much chatter of fiscal stimulus to come, but as for further BOJ action, that would appear to not be on the horizon at present).
Watch the details of this release ... the deflator (a measure of inflation) should give the Bank of Japan some encouragement (the UTokyo index is showing rising inflation as well), while business capex .... mmmm ... if it comes in as expected, not so much.
its not much of a prediction to say we can expect only a minor impact on the yen ... Japanese data is rarely impactful on release, and today's GDP is very much in the past, partial indicators (along with other economic data) have been giving us the picture of a stumbling economy for weeks and months now. The surprise will be if we don't see a negative GDP print .... this could translate into a reasonable yen positive.
