Oliver Harvey, strategist at Deutsche Bank advises treating the exit poll vary warily

  • A very significant last minute shift in sentiment is possible
  • But cautions against believing the U.K. election exit poll to be conclusive
  • Poll should be taken with "huge pinch of salt"
  • Oliver says also that the shares of the vote for the SNP and LibDems also look very surprising

Oliver goes on to say that if the exit poll is correct then the the last 3 months of poll data was misleading or inaccurate

If the exit poll is correct:

  • Will mean a 100% probability of new Conservative-led government
  • Leaves them only 7 short of a workable majority (323)
  • Likely the party wouldn't have to form a coalition
  • But a minority government relying on support from Northern Irish DUP

via Bloomberg

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Cable update: