Details from the December 2016 UK retail sales data report 20 December 2016

  • Prior 0.2%

  • 4.3% vs 7.2% exp y/y. Prior 5.9%
  • Ex-fuel -2.0% vs -0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.5%
  • 4.9% vs 7.6% exp y/y. Prior 6.6%
  • 3m/3m sales 1.2% vs 2.0% prior
  • 3m/y/y 5.6% vs 5.5% prior

So much for my thoughts. The quid moving south just before the release was perhaps the clue that we were getting a bad number.

A drop in sales across the board bar one, other stores. The ONS say that the numbers will add 0.1 PP to Q4 GDP. What is of note ifs that the retail sales deflator rose 0.9% vs 0.1% y/y prior, the highest since Dec 2013.

Cable has dipped under 1.23 to 1.2291, which looks a bit of overkill just on these numbers. As I pointed out just before the release, the quarter as a whole was pretty good.

UK retail sales ex-fuel y/y