This is the release of the 'yuan terms' trade balance
Trade Balance CNY 278.4bn
- expected 364.5bn, prior 346bn
Exports -5.6% y/y. That's a very, very big miss
- expected +2.5% y/y , prior +5.9% y/y
Imports +2.2% y/y
- expected +5.5%, prior +10.8%
We'll get the USD terms soon, they normally follow in around 30 minutes or so ... tthat's an elastic time frame though
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Comments from China Customs on the data:
- China continues to face relatively large difficulties
- China will implement policies to stabilise foreign trade growth
- Leading indicators show that pressure on exports is likely to ease in Q4
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While you're here ....
BoA / ML have cut their forecasts for the yuan next year
- USD/CNY forecast at 7.00 by the end of 2016 (unchanged)
- 7.05 in Q1 of 2017 (prior forecast was at 7.00)
- 7.10 in Q2 2017 (from 7.00)
- Q3 7.15 (6.90)
- Q4 7.25 (6.80)
The bank cites continued capital outflows, says new channels for outflows being found
- Also, depreciation of the yuan is still a policy goal
- Says capital flow high in August, to $58b (compared with $28b in April)
