US CPI due at 13.30 GMT

There's many views on inflation at the Fed, some see it waiting in the wings, some see it overshooting, some see falling further, some are not even sure how to measure it anymore. When you add up all the opinions it's a bit disconcerting that really, none of them have a clue what's going on

Well, that's their cross to bear not ours. As traders, all we want to know is what to do if it goes up, and what to do if it goes down

Year on year CPI is sitting on the zero line. We're expecting it to tick up to 0.1%. The main thing that keeps US inflation from looking dodgy is the core number. Compared to some other major economies it's looking very healthy at 1.9%, and is expected to remain there today

We haven't seen a lot in the smaller and regional data points to suggest that we see much of a change in the headline number so the risk is we do see a big variation. That said, PPI prices (y/y) took a dive in Oct as so that's adds some extra caution in the mix

The market may get spooked if we see y/y CPI fall into the negative. -0.2% or more will jangle some nerves, but then we'll see what the core does. If that moves lower by 2 percentage points or more then the buck could be in trouble. If the headline is lower but the core stays put, or even rises, then that should soothe traders

Current scorecard for prices in the US

A rise in both measures will be a green light for USD buyers on the rate trade, again look for that 2 pip differential to gauge how strong a reaction will be

If all that wasn't enough to watch, in the middle of all the numbers we get some further wage data. Month on month earnings dropped 0.2% last month and today it's expected to rise 0.2% in Oct. Year on year came in at 2.3% prior

Real average weekly earnings y/y

A big move up in wages may trump anything in CPI. Even a moderate rise might lessen any blow from poor CPI numbers. This is the third thing to gauge as the numbers roll off and it makes for many variables. As always we'll get the analysis out as fast as we can to help make things clear