Latest look at the bookies odds on the UK referendum
Even after the head of the British Chamber of Commerce was forced to fall on his sword over his stance on Europe, the bookies still favour the UK voting to stay in and have pushed the odds out a little further on an exit.
Referendum odds as of 24th Feb
Latest odds
It's not much of a move. Staying is marginally closer to 1/3 than 1/2 now and the same (but reversed) goes for leaving.
More bets are coming into the stay vote than back in Feb, as the pie chart shows. There's still lots of news to come yet and keeping the eye on the odds can show how that news is interpreted, from the bookies point of view anyway.
For the pound, the BCC news didn't seem to ruffle many feathers early on and we look to be down more so on the general risk off sentiment than anything else. the yen is seeing some demand, and that has FY repatriation hanging over it in earnest now for the next couple of weeks.
Cable topped out at the 50.0 fib of the Feb move at 1.4250 and then found itself below 1.4230.
GBPUSD H4 chart
Friday afternoon I pinpointed 1.4230 as a level that would mark a bullish signal if we closed above it. That didn't happen and although support at 1.4200 put up a brave fight, that couldn't hold either. It's given the bears the edge to run out some longs and now we'll need to see how much they've got left in the tank. For now 1.4100 is the big support level and 1.4200 is likely to be the stronger resistance now. In between there look at 1.4140 (which is support right now), 1.4120 & 1.4110. The better resistance will probably be sitting at 1.4160 and 1.4180.
