Governor of the Bank of Canada Poloz oin the wires
- Q2 and Q3 growth set to be "very choppy"; Q2 growth likely to be flat or slightly negative, Q3 to show outsized recovery
- That type of quarterly growth profile could yield average growth over Q2 and Q3 quite close to bank's April forecast
- "Confident we are making real progress"; global economy retains capacity to disappoint, but is gradually healing
- Growth forecast numbers will change in July's MPR; but it seems core forecast narratives around US economy, Canada's exports remain intact
- Extended period of oil prices at recent levels unlikely to lead to greater investment spending in Canadian oil patch
- Highly uncertain what price level will rebalance oil market on sustained basis; oil prices will not be returning to old highs in foreseeable future
- Adjustment to low oil prices will take "another couple of years" to sort itself out; non-resource economy moving unevenly toward full capacity
- Q2 looking better for US; don't think recent jobs stumble represents significant downshift in growth
- Balance of risks around US outlook now appears to be reasonably close to bank's April forecast
- Export recovery very uneven, but several categories encouraging; many export sectors operating near capacity limits
- Financial stability risks remain a concern, especially in housing sector, but should shrink as economy strengthens
- Alberta wildfires will cut annualized q2 GDP growth by about 1.0-1.25 percentage points (in May bank forecast hit of around 1.25 percentage points)
Headlines via Reuters
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CAD not doing too much on these comments
