Earlier posts on the data:
  • Australia data: (Jan) Employment change +13.5K (vs. +10K expected)
  • 2000 words on the Australian employment report (actually two pics)

JPM:

  • The break down between part time and full time is not good
  • Jobs market remains in tepid recovery and has lost steam
  • Notes only small improvement in unemployment rate over the past 12 months
  • Job gains are titled towards services ... more part-time, lower attachment, lower average hours
  • Difficult to see how income growth & consumption will grow in the near-term
  • Difficult to see how labour market slack will be eroded

Westpac:

  • A disappointing update on the labour market
  • The fall in unemployment resulting from a decline in participation
  • Return of female/part-time employment at the expense of male/full-time employment suggests the recovery in the manufacturing sector has run its course
  • However, a promising sign with a further gain in total hours worked driven by ongoing rise in hours worked per full-time employee

UBS

  • Trends in the labour market over recent months show ongoing modest jobs growth
  • But negative full-time contrasted by booming part-time
  • Unemployment rate holds around 5.75%
  • Implies little change in labour market slack ... consistent with our view of low inflation and wages
  • Leading indicators of employment continue to suggest somewhat better jobs growth over coming months
  • For now, the jobs data is broadly consistent with the RBA remaining on hold ahead

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