Ever since Australian Q3 GDP came in negative concerns have been heightened for the Q4 GDP result
If Q4 GDP comes in negative Australia will have met the conditions for a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP)
- Q4 GDP is due at 0030GMT on Wednesday 1 March (Wednesday 11.30am local Sydney time)
- On Friday I posted up what is expected: in a nutshell (though more at the link) consensus median is 0.7% q/q and median is 1.9% y/y
The data today ... reminder if you need:
- Australia data: Q4 Inventories +0.3% q/q (expected +0.5%)
- Australia data: Q4 Company profits: +20.1% q/q (expected +8.0%)
Westpac's take on the data:
- We have upgraded our Q4 GDP forecast to 0.7%qtr, 1.9%, up from 0.4% qtr
- The substantial upside on company profits boosts our estimate of GDP on an income basis materially, more than offsetting the downside on wage incomes
- Our estimate of GDP on an expenditure basis was rounded-up due to the slightly less negative impact of inventories
- Tomorrow, data on net exports and public demand will provide further guidance to risks around our forecast, ahead of the National Accounts on Wednesday
Tomorrow's data will provide the final (known) inputs, and we'll have a better idea ... so stay tuned (or come tomorrow) ....
