Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy
This is published once a quarter
- RBA quarterly statement repeats policy easing to help foster growth, offers no forward guidance
- Underlying inflation to remain under 2 pct for much of forecast period, reach 2 pct by end 2018
- Prospects for economy positive, but low inflation allows for "even stronger growth"
- Judged risks associated with rising house prices and debt had diminished
- Says AUD remains significant source of uncertainty for inflation, growth forecasts
- Economic growth and inflation forecasts little changed overall
- Forecasts underlying inflation 1.5 pct by end 2016, 1.5-2.5 pct end 2017, 1.5-2.5 pct end 2018
- Forecasts gdp growth 2.5-3.5 pct end 2016, 2.5-3.5 pct end 2017, 3-4 pct end 2018
- Says unemployment to fall only a little out to 2018, employment growth to be modest this year
- Drag on GDP from falling mining investment looks to have peaked, non-mining still subdued
- Dwelling investment to stay strong for next year or so, but raises risk of oversupply
- GDP growth looks to have moderated in Q2 as net exports added less
- Says wage growth expected to remain low, rise modestly out to 2018
- Increasing supply, China steel cutbacks to put downward pressure on iron ore prices
- Growth in China expected to slow gradually over next few years, housing a risk
- Brexit to have limited effect on Australia's major trading partners
Quick headlines via Reuters
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The Statement has a subdued tone and while "offers no forward guidance" given everything else in it it does seem the bank is leaning toward more accommodation.
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