In the great tradition of trying to pick a change in trend here's this overnight from the Sydney Morning Herald
It reports on Goldman Sachs chief economist Tim Toohey, he says Tuesday's speech from RBA assistant governor Chris Kent delivered on Tuesday "amounts to an explicit shift to a neutral policy stance"
- Kent's speech is here: RBAs Kent: AUD did not fall as much as implied by terms of trade
- and more here: Would hesitate to say where the AUD should be
Says Toohey:
- Dr Kent essentially framed the RBA's earlier rate cut logic around an initial larger than expected decline in mining capital expenditure and subsequent larger than expected decline in the terms of trade
- Having so closely linked the RBA's easing cycle to the weakness in the terms of trade (and earlier decline in mining investment), Dr Kent's key remark was to flag "the abatement of those two substantial headwinds" and highlight that this "would be a marked change from recent years
Hard to disagree with Toohey ... and indeed in the latest statement from the bank a couple of weeks ago I thought it was neutral ... so, yeah. neutral, for now. Just like sitting at traffic lights, once the lights change ya shift out of neutral ...
Christopher Kent is the one with the arrow pointing to him
Bonus points if you can name the other two
(And, dude, get a life .... its OK, I'm talking to myself)
