The 'headline' for this report is 'Employment change' and also 'Unemployment rate'

Employment Change March: +60.9K HUGE BEAT

  • expected +20K, prior +2.8K, revised from -6.4K

Unemployment Rate: 5.9%

  • expected 5.9%, prior 5.9%

Full Time Employment Change, +74.5K

  • prior was +38.8K, revised from +27.1K

Part Time Employment Change, -13.6K

  • prior was -35.9K, revised from -33.5K

Participation Rate, 64.8%

  • expected is 64.6%, prior was 64.6%

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 3.2 million hours to 1,664.2 million hours

The above are the 'seasonally adjusted' figures, which is what the market will focus on for the initial response. Below is the 'trend' data that the ABS tells us is a better measure ... but we don't care! :-D

OK ... how about that data? The employment report can be a very, very volatile series, today is a case in point. Other indicators have been pointing to an improving labour market, most recently (and for many monhts indeed) the NAB Business Survey, which has shown rockieting 'business conditions' ...eg. from Tuesday just this week:

  • Business conditions 14 ... the highest since January of 2008
  • and further from Tuesday's report ... Employment index unchanged, at +5 (another sign for a labour market better than the official data show)

If you've been reading FXL for a while you'll know I am an optimist by nature ... and in the paragraph above I've done my best to rationalise this great result today ... but wow ... even I am struggling to accept these results ... maybe I'll focus on the 'trend' data, which is not so spectacular.

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The 'trend' data & comments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics:

  • Trend employment increased by 16,500
  • Total employment growth over the year was 1.0 per cent, just over half the average growth rate of the past 20 years (1.8 per cent)
  • "We have seen strengthening in full-time growth over recent months, following falls in full-time employment recorded through much of 2016" said the Acting General Manager of ABS' Macroeconomic Statistics Division, Jacqui Jones
  • The trend monthly hours worked decreased by 0.4 million hours (0.02 per cent), with decreases in total hours worked by both full-time and part-time workers
  • The trend unemployment rate in Australia increased by less than 0.1 percentage points, to 5.9 per cent in March 2017
  • The trend participation rate also increased slightly, to 64.7 per cent
  • Trend series smooth the more volatile seasonally adjusted estimates and provide the best measure of the underlying behaviour of the labour market