The latest forecast model has checked its tea leaves
"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.2 percent on October 5, unchanged from October 3. Following yesterday's auto sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, this morning's M3 manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's Non-Manufacturing Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent and the forecast of third-quarter real equipment investment growth increased from -2.0 percent to 0.0 percent. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter growth fell from 0.13 percentage points to -0.13 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau."
