–Retransmitting Second Section of Story Published 15:35 ET Wednesday
–Former Fed Gov Warsh a Candidate; Summers,Dimon Not so Much

-continued- (2 of 2)

Next on the list, though not necessarily on Obama’s list, is Kevin
Warsh, even though he carries the disadvantage for any nominee of having
served as a Federal Reserve governor, in fact, the youngest ever.
However, he left years before he had to.

Other considerations for Warsh are that he was involved in the sale
of Bear Stearns and the bailout of AIG. He may have redeemed himself in
the eyes of conservatives somewhat as a visiting fellow at Stanford’s
Hoover Institution. His supporters count his performance last week as a
visiting host on CNBC as a home run, when he was able to smoothly
criticize Democratic policy and the Fed’s QE3 without displaying a mean
streak.

Warsh is financially independent thanks to his wife, an heiress to
the Estee Lauder fortune. As for knowing which way the wind is blowing,
his sister was once an anchor on the Weather Channel where,
coincidentally, Bain Capital chose to invest. Warsh worked for Morgan
Stanley in M&A for seven years, knows how to find the Oval Office,
having been on the Bush administration’s National Economic Council, and
he too is not an economist, although he is a lawyer.

Geithner has been quoted saying that in looking for his
replacement, the president should pick someone who will “tell him the
truth.”

One Democratic candidate for Geithner’s job who is seen as a
straight talker is Larry Fink, the BlackRock chair and CEO, managing
more money than anyone else, at $1.3 trillion, even making money during
some crisis years.

Fink stays involved in everything, having run the Bear Stearns
aftermath, helped with AIG, Citigroup, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and
one of the people at the beginning of mortgage-backed securities. So, in
some sense, being Treasury secretary and in the Cabinet could be viewed
as a demotion. For Obama, however, he is someone who cannot be left off
the list.

Among other Democrats mentioned are Blackstone’s COO Hamilton
“Tony” James, a big donor.

Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo, the banking reform expert, was also
formerly on the National Economic Council. However, tainted as a staunch
defender of Dodd-Frank, with no budget chops or markets connections,
the former academic is way down on the list.

A perennial, or perhaps quadrennial favorite, Roger Altman, has
always been considered at the top of at least his own list, and yet as
ubiquitous as he is as a Democratic insider and talking head, he still
raises hackles of some on Capitol Hill with long memories of his
allegiance to the Clintons. He has already served as deputy Treasury
secretary, resigning during the Whitewater controversy, now obscured by
the mists of time. As the founder of Evercore Partners, he may actually
rather be a kingmaker than constrained in a Cabinet officer’s role.

The least controversial choice as Geithner’s successor would be
that of proven White House stalwart Jack Lew, now Obama’s chief of staff
and, as a former OMB director and staffer, a key budget expert. If Obama
remained averse to drama in a second term, Lew would fill the bill. He
is well liked on Capitol Hill and could survive a confirmation battle.
Yet a little drama, a personality that can command attention and some
Street background may be more necessary as qualifications to head
Treasury as challenges mount in the next year.

Once high on any list, Jamie Dimon has been chastened by the Big
Loss yet still ranks high in Sheila Bair’s estimation, according to her
book. Larry Summers is seen to have used up all his tickets to the White
House circus. Laura D’Andrea Tyson, the UC Berkeley economist and former
chief of the White House Council of Economic Advisers could bring the
expertise of a noted economist to bear, but Treasury has always required
more than an economist’s credentials. The last economist in that job was
the Bush administration’s John Snow, and the former railroad executive
always kept that part of his resume nearly invisible.

Larry Summer’s former chief of staff when he was Treasury
secretary, Sheryl Sandberg, is a name that comes up occasionally.
Certainly familiar with Treasury, the Facebook chief operating officer
and director is on several lists of “influentials” as a leading woman
business executive, and has the advantage of being a mostly unknown
quantity within Washington circles. Again, budget and markets expertise
is not among her areas of interest, a consideration in a
post-financial-crisis, budget-crisis atmosphere.

Back on the Republican side, Rob Portman is close to Romney, so
close, in fact, he plays Obama in the practice sessions for the upcoming
presidential debates — as he did for John McCain. A senator from the
key swing state of Ohio, a former U.S. trade ambassador, White House
counsel and budget director, all he needs is experience as a
congressional lobbyist — and his ample resume does in fact show he once
was the Bush administration’s liaison to Capitol Hill.

Portman has raised money for Republican candidates and was often
mentioned as potential Romney vice presidential material. Always seen as
a capable heavy lifter — and not only because of his father’s forklift
company in Cincinnati — Portman was even on the congressional Super
Committee that failed to prevent the threat of sequestration that looms
so large on the near-term horizon.

Whether delivering the eulogy for another Ohioan, Neil Armstrong,
or as one of five senators in the Serbian-American Caucus, Portman is
seemingly everywhere. Yet, while intuitively avoiding controversy, has
also somehow always been out of the spotlight. That could change if he
makes it to Treasury.

Another Republican jack-of-all-trades is Bob Zoellick, who
supposedly would rather be Secretary of State after being deputy
secretary briefly for George W. Bush and an under secretary of State
during Bush’s father’s administration.

Zoellick has another of those industrial-strength resumes that
allows him to speak economics, trade, China, markets — he was at
Goldman Sachs for a while — and, of course, development, as a World
Bank chief up through June. Should the slot at State be filled by
someone else, Treasury could be the consolation prize should Romney win.

There remains a sizable crowd of other names down the list of
eligibles, of Treasury under secretaries, former Treasury officials,
prominent economists and academics: Glenn Hubbard and John Taylor,
business women like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, and even former
long-time GAO director and budget hawk David Walker.

Should Romney win, why not just reach back into Bain Capital for
Treasury talent? It may not be that easy. The top tier there, it seems,
includes several Democrats, two of whom reportedly spoke at the
Democratic Convention.

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** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$$,MAUDS$]