These are heady days in the gold market.
Despite some US strength and hawkish comments from the Fed's Waller today, gold is a standout performer, up $20 to $2213.
If gold can hold onto most of those gains, today will mark the first ever daily close above $2200. Technically, there is something of an inverted head and shoulders shown here that targets $2500.
What's striking to me about gold is how quiet this rally has been. Silver hasn't hit new highs and gold miners continue to struggle. Those two things that tell me that retail and the investment community isn't involved in this bull market, at least not yet.
I talked about these things with Kitco and highlighted the positive setup.
So where is the buying coming from? It's clear that it's Asia. Export data from Switzerland show physical gold is going to China and there are also signs of demand from Middle Eastern customers.
I think we will look back on this gold market and it will be clear that the decisions of the US and Europe to seize Russian financial assets was the catalyst for a multi-year bull market.
The next big driver is likely to be Fed rate cuts and -- eventually -- a weakening of the US dollar. I'm constructive on the dollar in general but by 2026 as fiscal support runs out, it should fade and that may be when retail piles in.
