Waits on the next push
In the new trading day, the RBA will release their meeting minutes and China will also release 1Q GDP (est 6.8%), retail sales and industrial production.
That combination could lead to some movement in the AUDUSD. The pair has been confined between support and resistance over the last two days. So traders are waiting for the next push.
Technically, the AUDUSD moved off low levels for the year last week, and in the process was able to move above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 0.77106 currently, the 200 hour MA on the same chart at 0.77456 (green line) and the 100 day MA at 0.77861 (currently). The pair did stall ahead of of the 200 day MA at 0.78119.
The break above the 100 day MA (at 0.7786 currently) failed on Friday. The price action today has stayed below that key level.
On the downside today, the low stalled ahead of the lower 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.77456.
With the price trading below the 100 day MA at 0.7786 and above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.77456, a break of either of those levels, will help to turn the bias in the direction of the break
On the topside, the break of the 100 day MA is step one. The other targets of importance on a move higher include:
- The 200 day MA at 0.78119 and
- A topside trend line at 0.7823 (see chart above).
- The 38.2% retracement at 0.78305 is another target to get to and through on stronger data
On the downside (lower numbers or more dovish comments):
- the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.77456 and
- the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 0.77106 are the levels to get below and stay below for more bearish potential.
SUMMARY. With lots of stuff coming out in the new day, and the AUDUSD trading in a confined range below key topside resistance, and above key topside support, the pair has a potential to be kicked in one direction or the other. The technical levels outlined above will help determine the strength of a bullish break or bearish break. Look for the clues from the price action.
