Nathan Sheets was an under secretary at the US Treasury for international affairs

Now head of Global Macroeconomic Research at PGIM Fixed Income (part of Prudential Financial). Interviewed on Bloomberg telly:

  • US labour market tightening
  • overheating still way down the road
  • Pros and cons in US tax cuts
  • 'Piper to be paid' on US fiscal within 7 years
  • Absolutely there is a possibility of a US recession in 3 - 5 years
  • Recession possibility if fiscal problems not addressed

I reckon he is right