Highlight of the April survey of UK economists

  • 69 of 76 economists expect the Bank of England to lift the bank rates 25 basis points to 0.75% on May 10
  • Median see a 20% chance of disorderly Brexit (unchanged from March)
  • Median 10% chance UK recession this year (vs 11% last month)
  • UK economy to expand 1.5% in 2018 and 2019 (unchanged from March)
  • 37 of 60 to said the Bank of England will lifted bank rate to 1% or higher by the end of the 1st quarter next year.
  • The median forecast shows the rate at a still historically low 1.25% in the final month of 2019