JP Morgan recession tracking model says the likelihood of a US recsion within 3 years is 80 percent

  • probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28%
  • 60% over the next two years,

Indicators used by JPM in the model include

  • consumer and business sentiment
  • prime-age male labor participation
  • compensation growth
  • durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product

Comes via Bloomberg.

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