Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Friday 19 October 2018
- China Q3 GDP and September activity reports - responses
- China Statistics bureau says economic fundamentals sound
- China Sept data for Industrial Production, retail sales and investment
- China Q3 GDP 6.5% y/y (vs. expected 6.6%)
- Japan fin min Aso says US Treasury report will not restrict Japan's FX policy
- Comments now from the PBOC Gov: Stock market valuations at low level
- Japan economy minister Motegi has not yet set date for start of trade talks with US
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9387 (vs. yesterday at 6.9275)
- China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission - systemic risks under control
- CPI recap - Japan inflation edged up, gains still largely limited to energy
- Economists expect US economic policy towards China to get even tougher
- Japan headline CPI for September: 1.2% y/y (expected 1.3%)
- Twitter suspends bots pushing pro-Saudi Arabia points about Khashoggi
- Canada, China, Mexico, US all want the WTO to rule on steel tariffs and retaliation
- JP Morgan on heightened probability for a US economic recession
- NZ migration data for September
- Mad cow disease has been found on a UK farm for the first time since 2015
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 19 October 2018
The focal point of the day here in Asia was the data from China, third quarter GDP along with September 'activity data' (industrial production, retail sales, asset investment).
Ahead of this we had Japanese inflation data, which, as usual, passed by with barely a ripple. Headline inflation is tracking above 1%, but the real core rate continues to miss the BOJ target badly, coming in at 0.4% y/y today. Japanese inflation is in energy prices and not much else.
Ahead of Chinese stock markets opening we got a concerted effort from the PBOC and the banking regulator to talk up the market, how sound the fundamentals are, all the regulatory and policy changes being implemented to make China a screaming buy, you know, the usual prop up efforts. The CNY mid rate setting was another weak one for the yuan, to its lowest since January 4 of 2017.
Shanghai Composite as of China lunchtime Friday
There was a bit of a pop in the AUD on the China jawboning, as I post it is net up around 20 points from session lows. Its been put to shame by the kiwi though, NZD/USD had dribbled to under 0.6530 early but is up 30+ posts as I update.
EUR and GBP are little changed against the big dollar. USD/CHF is a few points higher, as is USD/JPY. USD/CAD has lost some ground . All have had small ranges only.
The China data showed GDP for the third quarter a touch under expectations and the Q2 result, although it did manage to continue its run of being within +/- 0.1% of the median estimate. September data showed industrial production down and a miss, while retail sales were up and a beat. China has been making efforts to boost domestic demand, maybe its working (according to these stats anyway).
Still to come:
- Forex options for expiry Friday 19 October 2018
- AUD traders - heads up for some political risk this weekend
- AUD traders, here is heads up No. 2 for some politics risk this weekend
- Forex options expiry for Monday
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I will have a couple more posts to come today ladies and gentlemen and then I will be handing you over to Giles to take you all through Europe and UK trade. Justin is taking a well deserved long weekend break.
Speaking of breaks, after a few more posts today I will be off for two weeks. I'll be back on November 5 to prepare for a huge RBA meeting on November 6. When they will do nothing.
Adam and Greg will be tag teaming the Asia shift until then.
