Candian Retail Sales and CPI data topping the bill today on a quiet data day.
Good morning all. I will be with you for today as Justin has a break. It is a quiet day on the data front with Canadian retail sales and CPI the main data focus for the day
0630GMT BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
Nothing particularly market moving expected from Kuroda. The inflation data out last night was 1% headline and 0.4% around the core data, so nothing to get excited about there.
0830GMT UK Public Sector Net Borrowing ex Banking Groups
This data is not particularly market moving and the belle of the ball is the Brexit negotiations which have gone badly
1230GMT Canadian retail sales m/m
1230GMT Canadian CPI data
The Canadian Retail sales and CPI data will be the last top tier data before the rate meeting next week on 24 October. Even a miss here is not going to dissuade the BOC from raising interest rates. Only a large miss would start the market having any doubts and we would see more USDCAD strength in this scenario. The strength of USDCAD has been strange really given the USMCA (formerly Nafta deal) being solved and strong Business confidence data out recently. A hike next week is now fully priced into the market.