The March labour market report (Australia) is due at 0130 GMT on Thursday 19 April 2018

starting late again tomorrow so sticking this up in advance.

Previews via a few of the banks:

NAB:

It's now been 17 consecutive months of employment growth and still counting.

  • NAB's forecast for March ... calls for yet another month of solid growth, an increase of 25K, just above the 20K market consensus.

Indicators of labour demand such as from the NAB Business Survey and Job Ads point to continuing ongoing growth in the demand for labour, consistent with some further solid growth in prospective employment.

  • NAB is expecting a broadly unchanged participation rate that with the 25K rise in employment would see the unemployment rate dip a tenth to 5.5%.
  • An unemployment rate of 5.5% is still above what is thought to be the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) of just below 5%, the level around which wages are likely to see more upward pressure as labour shortages become more prominent.

And, a view from offshore:

RBC:

  • Employment gains in 2018 have moderated a little relative to last year's exceptional strength, a theme we expect to continue playing out over the course of the year, but after 2 months of sub-20k prints and with leads remaining strong, we think some upside correction is due, and are forecasting a +30k monthly gain with the unemployment rate sticking at 5.5%.
  • The participation rate shows no sign of giving up on its recent gains, and we expect this to stay up around multi-year highs at 65.7%.

TD:

  • After outsized seasonal volatility over the summer (in original terms) March sees a return to 'normal'. Easter was Apr 1, suggesting minimal disruption to seasonal patterns.
  • We look for +30k with upside risk, i.e. much higher than Jan/Feb but well below last year's outsized +57k. If the participation rate remains at 65.7% then the unemployment rate can return to 5.5%.