200 day MA at $8623
I have been talking about the 200 day MA as a key target for Bitcoin. That MA comes in at $8623. The price has not traded above that MA since March 14, 2018 (in April and May it was sniffed and backed off).
Today was another "sniff day". The price high extended to $8488. That is still $135 from the MA (on Coinbase), but remember the price has been ripping higher of late.
So it may not have been a test (and some sellers may not have gotten to the target), but it was close enough for some selling. Bitcoin trading does require taking more risk on the entry and exits.
The price is currently down about -$120 on the day at $8110 The low reached $8042 (range $446 for the day).
What are the risk levels now?
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price fell below a trend line in trading today giving sellers a reason to sell as well. It is not full bearish but some may be tempted to sell against the trend line now (stay below is more bearish).
On the downside, the 100 hour MA comes in at $7793.88 (and moving higher). Just below that is a trend line. That area is risk area for bullish traders. Stay above is still bullish. Move below starts to add to a bearish bias (with the 200 hour MA - green line targeted).
As mentioned, the 100 hour MA is moving higher. So as time goes back it moves closer to the price. That is good news for longs if the price consolidates as the stop levels moves higher and higher.
So overall, the sellers have some reason(s) including "sniffing" the 200 day MA and falling below a trend line. However, there still is more work to do before you can say the sellers are 'in charge" The 100 hour MA and lower trend line are key levels that should provide support on a test, but if broken would weaken the bulls hand a bit. Following that would be the 200 hour MA(at $7547.77 and moving higher). The whole rally higher got its push back on July 16th on the break of that MA. If the rally is over, that MA will have to be broken to the downside.
