The latest Reuters polling, some sobering views for the administration and central bank in Japan
Japan Fiscal year 2017 GDP forecast +1.8 pct
- FY 2018 +1.3 pct (no change from March poll)
"Consumer spending and industrial production likely weakened during the period due to such factors as the cold weather and higher vegetable prices," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "But the trend of moderate economic recovery has not changed as the overseas economy is solid."
Japan's economy, the world's third largest, has grown for eight straight quarters through end-2017, the longest continuous expansion since the 1980s
Bank of Japan will soon delay timing of when it expects to meet 2 pct inflation target, say 32 of 39 economists
- Economists projected the core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food, will rise to 0.9 percent this fiscal year and 1.0 percent for fiscal 2019, excluding the impact on price growth from a scheduled sales tax hike next October.
- The Bank currently sees it achieving that goal around fiscal 2019. Twenty-four of 32 analysts said the BOJ will revise its timing when it releases an outlook for the economy and prices in October, four said revision would be when the bank issues the report in July and two said in April. Two did not offer a view on timing.
So, GDP to slow ahead, and the BOJ to shift the goal posts on achieving the 2 percent target.
Anyone surprised?
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poll of 39 economists taken April 4-12
