More from Evans
Flattening of yield curve might suggest heightened risk, but all other indicators are very strong
Long-term decline in long-term interest rates makes it harder to interpret implications of flattening yield curve
I think he has a point. The yield curve is the ultimate predictor of recessions but it's not infallible. An inversion with yields at 3% is different than one with yields at 6%.
And as the Fed, you can't put the yield curve about all the other data, which has been strong.
