UBS with brief comments on the week ahead for central banks.
On Tuesday there is the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, announcement due at 0330GMT. Says UBS:
- Consensus suggests that RBA is unwilling to further cut the cash target and keep it at 2% as concerns about property prices have been rising
- However, ongoing external weakness could challenge their current bias and neutral language on the AUD
Bank of Japan meeting on October 6 and 7:
- Widely expected to keep policy unchanged
- However, with a weaker Tankan survey the expectations for additional easing is growing and we believe the BoJ is likely to ease if Q3 GDP estimates are weak
Bank of England meeting on October 8, announcement at 1100GMT:
- Expected to hold policy
- After the Fed decided not to raise rates in September, the BoE might also have to wait a bit longer to raise rates than our projected February hike
Also this week, Minutes from the ECB and Fed.
European Central Bank Minutes on October 8 at 1130GMT
- Economic forecasts given by Draghi in the last meeting were even weaker than those in March, when QE started
- The minutes will likely be relevant for ECB's stance on further easing and the parameters it will take into consideration
FOMC Minutes, October 8 at 1800 GMT:
- The minutes will throw more light on the September decision, especially the external components
- However, the focus will likely be more on the tone used for any rate hike decision in Q4 amid low inflation in US and the global economic slowdown
(Note ... UBS note written before the NFP result)
