The RBNZ statement and Official Cash Rate
- All 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast no move
- Sees average OCR at 1.8% in Q2, Q3 and Q4
- NZD remains higher than sustainable for balanced growth
- Uncertainties remain, policies must adjust
- Sees inflation reaching 2% in Q2 2019 vs Q4 2018
- Inflation to return to target gradually
- Longer term inflation expectations well anchored
- Recent moderate of house price inflation welcome
- Challenges remain with geopolitical uncertainty
- Read the Monetary Policy Statement
The shift to a later return to the inflation target is moderately dovish.
The line on the New Zealand dollar in the statement: "The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the exchange rate is needed. "
