Deutsche Bank Markets Research published a piece on Thursday with a look at the USD.

It's a look at longer-term trends.

In a brief summary of the major points:

  • Say they have a 'committed dollar bullish view'
  • Dollar cycle is maturing but there is at least 10% appreciation to the trade-weighted USD to go
  • Dollar cycle is turbo-charged, so a deceleration may be due
  • Dollar no longer correlated to risk appetite
  • World's major funding currency is now the euro
  • China's renminbi is the only major currency to have strengthened vs, the dollar since the up cycle began
  • USD is becoming expensive, but not across all currencies... most Asian and GBP currencies remain over valued, yen has become cheap

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Their ranking of the major currencies (I've left out many of the smaller currencies), from most to least expensive:

  • GBP
  • USD
  • NZD
  • CHF
  • AUD
  • CNY
  • SGD
  • CAD
  • EUR
  • JPY