A preview of Friday's (3 April) nonfarm payroll data from Steve Englander of CitiFX:

Says there may more downside than upside risk for the USD

Cites:

  • Market is still long USD
  • A weak outcome would confirm fears that the Q1 slowdown was no aberration
  • One strong number is unlikely to convince investors a June rates lift-off for the Federal Reserve is live
  • Citi forecast 220k is, he says, is on the soft side and "looks more in line with mixed labor data precursors than the consensus optimism."

He concludes: "USDJPY downside is likely to be the trade"

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Note, the Bloomberg 'expected' at this stage is 245K