Dave's deal gets done

  • All 28 states agreed the deal
  • Overwhelming majority of conditions agreed to
  • UK permanently out of an ever closer union
  • UK will never be part of a European super state
  • Says he has protected the future of the pound
  • UK tax payers will never bail out Eurozone banks
  • UK can enact emergency safeguards to protect the City and British businesses
  • Says he can now recommend that that the UK should stay in the EU
  • Will propose new measures to boost UK sovereignty
  • Announcement on referendum date to come shortly
  • Referendum will be a historic moment for Britain (being touted for June 23rd)
  • A vote to leave wouldn't herald new negotiations
  • Just because an organisation is frustrating doesn't mean we should leave
  • Thinks the British people would be safer in rather than out
  • Will meet the cabinet at 10am tomorrow (Sat)

That's some of the main comments coming out.

Let me clarify a few things, the deals on welfare and benefits is piecemeal stuff. It's something most European countries would be happy with as it saves money all round and pleases voters on some immigrations issues, and as we know, that's a hot topic right now.

For the referendum, the comments in bold above are what your average Brit wants to see. The spin is going to be that the UK can stay in Europe on the same basis we have now, with no risk that we'll be joining the Eurozone. Businesses and the City will be happy with the protections (full judgement to come on the details). If the UK believes in those 5 points then the referendum result will be a resounding vote to stay in.

David Cameron has won a huge battle in the Brexit war as he can come home and say he accomplished what he set out to do and got the UK a deal from Europe. What will happen over the weekend now is that the details of this deal will be dissected by the political parties and the press and the two sides of the Brexit war will go into battle to canvas for the referendum.

For the pound, that's one risk hurdle removed and I would hazard a guess the news has come too late for prices to react fully, so I'm still thinking that we could get some early action at the Monday Asia open.

Once that dust has settled we'll start to get and idea of where the battle lines will be drawn regarding the referendum. When we get a date for it, the real Brexit trading will begin. While I personally may be sceptical of the real impact of this deal, I cannot stress enough that those 5 points above could be the clincher for a vote to stay in, and from that we have a trade. I'll now be looking to see how the polls start turning out and I'm hoping they mostly come out negative because I now want to buy the pound to fade any exit fears. The trade now could well be like the Scottish vote and the general election for trading unfounded fear.