Trade balance data from New Zealand for September 2015, including exports and imports

Trade balance: -1222m

  • Expected -825m, Prior was -1035m

Exports 3.69bn

  • Expected 3.90bn, Prior was 3.73bn

Imports 4.91bn

  • Expected 4.78bn, Prior was 4.77bn

The trade deficit widened on a larger than expected fall in exports and a larger than expected increase in imports.

The imports data argues for an economy that is on the strong side. External demand though, if the decline in exports is any guide (it is) is softer ... which is not a new piece of news.

NZD/USd is a little lower on the release, around 0.6770 as I update.

Will the data have an impact on the RBNZ decision later this week? Well ... Like I said, imports are indicating an economy that is doing OK, while exports are down (on offshore demand weakness) ... so the question is if the RBNZ think they can influence offshore demand by lowering NZ interest rates. the answer is no. What they could achieve by a lower cash rate, of course, is a lower NZD (at the margin). That's the question, as discussed here earlier.

More to come