A no-nonsense preview of non-farm payrolls for March 6, 2014 that sticks to the numbers:
Release time is Friday at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT):
- Median estimate 235K (225K private)
- Jan reading: 257K (best since April)
- High est 290K (Intesa Sanpaolo)
- Low est 170K (Raymond James)
- Avg of estimates made after ADP/ISM-non: 229K
- Standard deviation: 25K
- NFP 6-month avg 282K
- Unemployment rate est. at 5.6% vs 5.7% prior
- Prior participation rate 62.9%
- ADP 212K vs 250K prior (219K exp)
- ISM August manufacturing employment 51.4 vs 54.1 prior
- ISM August non-manufacturing employment: 56.4 vs 51.6 prior
- Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 26.2 vs 24.6 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 305K vs 293K at the time of the Jan jobs report
- Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine showed demand for hiring up 184.4K
- February 2015 US Challenger layoffs 50.6k vs 53k prior
- Dec JOLTS job openings: 5028K vs 4847K prior
I think the trading strategy is simple. If it's soft, buy the US dollar dip because it will be blamed on cold weather and brushed aside.
Non-farm payrolls since 2012
