Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of the March 2016 non-farm payrolls employment report:
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, April 1, 2016:
- Median NFP estimate 205k (190k private)
- Feb 242K
- Highest estimate 250k (Stifel Nicolaus)
- Lowest estimate 170k (Banque National)
- Average estimate 201k
- Standard deviation 24k
- Unemployment rate exp 4.9% vs 4.9% prior
- Participation rate exp 62.9% unch
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp 0.2% vs -0.1% prior
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 2.2% y/y vs 2.2% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.5 vs 34.4 prior
Here's the March 20jobs story so far
- ADP 200K vs 205k prior (exp 195K)
- ISM manufacturing employment - not yet released
- ISM non-manufacturing employment - not yet released
- Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 263K vs 260k prior (for Feb NFP survey date)
- Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 26.6 vs 23.6 prior
- Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring -31.5K
- Challenger layoffs +31.7% y/y vs +21.8% y/y prior
- Jan JOLTS 5541k vs 5607k prior
The numbers that matter in this release are wages. Last month, the US dollar jumped on the release because of a strong jobs gain but it reversed shortly afterwards because wage indicators weak.
