Mohamed A. El-Erian on the French election outcome

It's a wide-ranging piece, and if you're after the next 50 or so points in the EUR it might not be of much immediate interest. But, on the markets and the European Central Bank in particular 9bolding is mine):

  • Preliminary results from France confirm what markets were expecting: a decisive loss for Le Pen. With the markets' near certainty now becoming certainty, this is likely to give a further boost to risk sentiment in the short-run.
  • However, the resulting rise in stocks, the appreciation of the Euro, and the fall in the France-Germany government bond spreads will likely be tempered by what has already been priced following Macron's first round win and the opinion polls forecasting Sunday's vote.
  • Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank will be putting their contingency plans back on the shelf, with the ECB also preparing for greater pressure to ease off the monetary policy accelerator.

Wider discussion at the article, here: What Macron Can Do for Free Markets Everywhere