I suppose this an early preview for the Bank of Japan meeting on the 14th and 15th of September.
Bloomberg's latest survey shows
- Only 2 of 35 economists/analysts expect the BOJ to ease further at this meeting
- But, for the October 30 meeting (which follows a meeting on the 6th and 7th of October) it jumps to 11 of the 35 expecting new BOJ action
Mmmm ... maybe is would be better to focus on the 33 of the 35 that are not expecting anything further next week ... but where's the fun in that? What are the 2 square pegs saying (no offence intended).
Hajime Takata at Mizuho Research Institute is one of the two:
"The China shock has changed the whole picture
Even it doesn't move next week, it will have to take action soon. As in the early 2000s and in 2007, it's always been external shocks that have destroyed Japan's recovery"
From Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities economist Naomi Muguruma:
- There is a risk of the BOJ conducting "emergency" easing at its September meeting
- But her main scenario is for the BOJ to add to stimulus on October 30
- Unclear whether the central bank can stay on hold until then, given China's currency devaluation last month, volatile stock markets and weaker-than-expected economic indicators in Japan
