From JP Morgan Private Bank comes their "Eye on the Market" - outlook for 2017
It's a long report (link to full PDF here), but this is the summary:
So, to sum up, here's what we think 2017 looks like:
- A modest growth bounce in the US from some personal and corporate tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending, with tighter labor markets, rising interest rates and a stronger dollar eventually taking some wind out of the US economy's sails. If I'm underestimating something, it might be the potential increase in confidence, spending and business activity resulting from a slowdown in the pace of government regulation
- A little better in Europe and Japan in 2017, but no major breakout from recent growth trends
- China grows close to stated goals, supported by multiple government bazookas firing at once
- Emerging markets ex-China continue recovering after balance of payments adjustments; while countries with high exposure to dollar financing will struggle, overall risks around a rising dollar have fallen markedly since 2011
- The world grows a little faster in 2017 than in 2016, but as shown above, a lot of that is already in the price of developed market equities. So, another single digit portfolio year ahead
