OK, yen, here's the inflation data, now off you go and react!

September National CPI y/y, -0.5%

  • expected -0.5%, prior was -0.5%

September National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food, -0.5%

  • expected -0.5%, prior was -0.5%
  • Seventh consecutive month of declines, deflation

September National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y, 0.0%

  • expected 0.1%, prior was 0.2%
  • This measure is similar to the core measure used elsewhere 9in the US, for example)

Tokyo CPI y/y (October), 0.1%

  • expected -0.4%, prior was -0.5%

Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for October, -0.4%

  • expected -0.5%, prior was -0.5%

Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for October, 0.1%

  • expected -0.1%, prior was -0.1%

The national figures are in line or worse. 'Core' in deflation, core-core unchanged.

The 'Tokyo' figures (Tokyo data comes out a month ahead of the national figure), some signs of improvement there. the headline beats significantly, the 'core' is a small beat (or, not as bad as expected) and the core-core (excluding Food, Energy) is a good beat also

Here is something else in line with expectations: Yen doing nuthin'!

On balance, given the Tokyo figures are a net beat, maybe some positives for the BOJ and the administration in this data. At least it isn't as bad as it could have been. But. maybe I'm stretching to find some good news.

Later today, at 0500GMT, we get the Bank of Japan's very own inflation measure, a core measure excluding fresh food and energy

  • expected +0.3%, prior 0.4%

The Bank of Japan meet next week (Monday and Tuesday), they are widely expected to keep policy unchanged (i.e. no further easing)

  • It may revise its inflation outlook (given this run of data, maybe they should!), pushing back the target date further into the future
  • The current goal is to hit 2% inflation in March of 2018