Went below on Friday. Can it stay below on Monday
If you look at the post Brexit lows, the pair stayed below the 1.30467-74 from July 5th to July 12. ON July 12th the price moved above that area and stayed above - until Friday's US employment report that is....
On Friday, the price moved below the area but could not sustain downside momentum. In fact if you look at the 4-hour chart, the low close was 1.3046.
Today, the pair is making the 4th separate run below the 1.3046 line and admittedly, the action is choppy at best (see 5-minute chart below). Nevertheless, we are now back below and looking to test the day's lows at 1.3031.
If I were to make a technical judgement right now, it would be that the sellers are trying to make a play for the downside. If the sellers are making a play for lower levels, lean against the 1.3046 level and look for the lows to be taken out at 1.3031 with the lows from Friday the next hurdle at the 1.3020 level. Then the 1.3000 level will be eyed
From July 5th to July 12th most of the 4 hour closes were below the 1.3000 level. There was only 1 bar where the close was higher. So there is some history of life below 1.3000.
First things first - get and stay below 1.3031 and then 1.3020.
