Like the headline to the post says, Australian GDP data due today... here's the preveiw!
I did an early preview last week (Early expectations from surveys of economists are showing for +0.5% q/q (prior was +0.9%)
The early preview though, it was a bit .... early. We've since had more info on the Aussie economy, and expectations for the data have been pushed a little lower:
- 0.4% q/q and 2.5% y/y is the new consensus median expectations
Those estimates are from Bloomberg's survey (28 respondents)
I'm gonna stick my neck out and stay on +0.5 q/q, +2.6% y/y. The figures are released at 11.30am Sydney time (0030GMT) - but I'll be around for scorn and ridicule pretty much all day so, in yer own time! :-D
Given we had the RBA yesterday the impact of today's release is going to be muted. Unless its a big surprise I am not expecting a big AUD response. A topside surprise should be a positive input for the AUD, while a downside (down under?) surprise should be a negative.
If you've taken Greg's ACT course, or read his excellent book, the next question to ask yourself is "Is it behaving as it 'should'?"
-
Prior to the GDP we get HIA New Home Sales for January, due at 0000GMT. Prior was +6.0%
