The TSC kicks off with Andy Haldane

  • There was collective amnesia at central banks in the run up to the last crisis

  • Scope to improve forecasting is more limited than weather forecasting

  • Is comfortable with a broadly neutral stance on the likely course of interest

  • rates

  • Risks to interest rates are two sided and symmetric

  • We would be concerned if there was a too sharp rise in market interest rates
  • Too sharp a rise in market rates could tighten credit conditions and hit consumer spending
  • Autumn budget will have a material effect on economic growth
  • Despite fiscal loosening in the Autumn statement (last one), there is still headwind from a contraction in the budget over the next few years

McCafferty

  • Supports the reduction of BOE equilibrium on unemployment but is unsure about the size of reduction

  • Would prefer a reduction to 4.75% rather than 4.5%

So far they are just answering questions on BOE forecasting.

The four BOE ducks lined up in the shooting gallery