The TSC kicks off with Andy Haldane
There was collective amnesia at central banks in the run up to the last crisis
Scope to improve forecasting is more limited than weather forecasting
Is comfortable with a broadly neutral stance on the likely course of interest
rates
Risks to interest rates are two sided and symmetric
- We would be concerned if there was a too sharp rise in market interest rates
- Too sharp a rise in market rates could tighten credit conditions and hit consumer spending
- Autumn budget will have a material effect on economic growth
- Despite fiscal loosening in the Autumn statement (last one), there is still headwind from a contraction in the budget over the next few years
McCafferty
Supports the reduction of BOE equilibrium on unemployment but is unsure about the size of reduction
Would prefer a reduction to 4.75% rather than 4.5%
So far they are just answering questions on BOE forecasting.
The four BOE ducks lined up in the shooting gallery