National Australia Bank Business Survey for March

Business Conditions, 14

  • prior 9
  • The long run average is 5, so today's result is a big positive
  • At 14 it's the highest since January of 2008
  • NAB chief economist Alan Oster: "conditions have improved almost across the board to levels that suggest a strong economy in the near-term ... That includes Western Australia, which has been looking better of late and suggests the worst of the mining downturn may be behind us."
  • Services & wholesale sectors showing the strongest conditions
  • Retail performed badly ... "continues to be a concern ... weakness is driving our relatively downbeat outlook for consumption" (Oster)
  • Mining improved - higher commodity prices helping
  • Sales the biggest gainer, up 10 points to +22
  • Profits +3 points to +13
  • Forward orders +2 points to +4
  • Employment index unchanged, at +5 (another sign for a labour market better than the official data show)
  • Capacity utilisation up a little to 81.9% (from 81.4 in February)
  • Capex investment intentions up to +13

Business Confidence, 6

  • prior 7
  • Long run average is around 6, so disappointment on the confidence measure

Oster does caution:

  • Still cause to be cautious about the longer-term outlook
  • Other growth drivers, particularly LNG exports, commodity prices, housing construction begin to fade

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Despite this good result the AUD is barely changed ... look out below I guess....

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National Australia Bank's monthly survey of more than 400 companies