Back on the 10th I came across this long term picture in AUD/NZD and have been keeping my eye on it since then.
AUDNZD monthly chart
I’ve been watching the pair struggle in the 1.08’s and we’ve now given that level up and have fallen back to the first of these support levels at around 1.0670.
Now I need a bit of help here as my MT4 monthly chart is showing a low of 1.0274 back in 1997 which I’m not seeing on the Bloomberg charts above. Can anyone else confirm this low as it has the potential for a support line through the 2005 low? I’m inclined to go with the BBG chart over my terminal but need to know whether I can trust my platform for all else.Until that is clear I’m sticking with the main historical lows which culminate in the low at 1.0432.
AUDNZD Monthly chart
With New Zealand looking to swap places with Australia as the growth country of that area it’s no surprise to see this pair under downward pressure. Most news is priced in but we’re still reacting to individual data points and that will decide how this pair goes. As I’ve said, on a close geographical basis New Zealand is moving ahead of Australia. It’s the antipodean EUR/GBP. On a global scale the differences are still fairly minimum which is why we’re seeing both the Aussie and Kiwi steady against the dollar etc.
I like the look of these levels for a long play so I’m going to start building a small position here and will do so in further stages down towards that 1.04 low. If it breaks I’ll reassess the position to see whether to hold or turn it with the break.
Levels are there to be broken and the Aussie has come off a very long investment boom which means the sames rules are going to apply to this trade as it does to my AUD/USD longs, in the main. An upturn in global fortunes will give both economies a boost with Australia probably gaining the most benefit. The risk is how far ahead does New Zealand get before that happens.
Trading or not it will be an interesting picture to follow.
