The pair is not running lower but bears remain in control.

The AUDUSD fell below its 200 and 100 day MAs last week. Since then the price has retested the 100 day MA, but sellers have been able to keep a lid on the rebounds near the level. Sellers are trying to keep control.

The bearish break has seen more selling but the momentum is not exactly running away. ON the downside, the 0.7729-32 area is a swing area from a low on October 6th at 0.7732, a high on November 2nd at 0.77294 and another high at 0.7729 on December 26th. The price broke above on December 27th and did not return until last week.

That swing area was broken on Thursday on the way to a low of 0.77119. Today, the price fell to 0.77251 and again saw a bounce.

With the price below the 100 day MA and finding sellers in that area, the 0.7729-32 level becomes the next target area to get to and through. A break should open the door for more selling. A failure and the sellers could give up and force a rebound.

Drilling to the hourly, the 100 hour MA has moved just below the 100 day MA now. If the price is able to get back above it (at 0.7764) and the 100 day MA (at 0.7766) technically that combination should solicit more buying.