With China, watch the imports

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

The Australian dollar is locked in a tight range awaiting the release of November Chinese trade data.

I suspect AUD buyers are waiting in the weeds after the upbeat Chinese industrial production data but are apprehensive at challenging offers in the 1.0500 area until after all the cards are on the table.

The kneejerk market reaction on Chinese trade data is usually on export growth. The consensus is for a 9.0% rise, which is a slowdown from the 11.6% pace in Oct.

But it’s the import numbers that tell a better story about global growth. Chinese importers are the front line in the global manufacturing cycle — bringing raw materials into the country. The import numbers speak to their new order books and willingness to accumulate inventories. Expectations are for a 2.0% rise.

As for the overall trade balance? It doesn’t move the market.

No time is specified for the release.