Some quick analysis

Some highlights from Westpac's take on the FOMC meeting

  • Fed hike expectations for July 27 fell to just 6% in the wake of today's meeting, down from 16% yesterday. A +25bp Fed hike has been pushed back by another couple months, a full +25bp hike not fully discounted until Oct/Nov 2017
  • Today's FOMC contained no significant surprises, a clear dovish tilt evident in the Fed's dot plot and a more restrained assessment of the labour market making its way into their statement.
  • The dot plot evolved much in line with expectations
  • Chair Yellen's press conference included much of the hopeful messaging in her recent speech

After the initial struggles, the US dollar is now mostly higher compared to where it was before the decision. I think this reflects flows more than how the market interpreted the Fed.