1.2900 in trouble as oil keeps its bid
It's a familiar story, oil comes into focus and CAD reacts.
1.2900 is where's we're pivoting at the moment as oil traders start getting expectant ahead of this weekend's Doha meeting.
USDCAD daily chart
I've been keeping an eye on moves into 1.2800 as I like the look of the tech around 1.2800/20 for a long.
While the loonie is going to be at the mercy of oil this week, we cannot rule out the BOC meeting on Wednesday. That may give us a quick trade if there's a dovish message from the BOC that runs USDCAD against this oil induced trend.
As we can expect oil to remain well supported into Doha, and thus keep USDCAD soft, anything that can upset that balance could be a good fade. We'll see how things pan out.
For the Doha meeting, I'm leaning towards the idea that we get a lot of big ideas and bluster about freezes and whatnot but no real substance, and that will pull the plug on any oil rallies. I'm going to watch how things develop with a view of shorting oil into the weekend.
