Oil prices. election results weighing the CAD down
The USDCAD continues to march higher (see prior technical comment). The pair has pushed above the 200 hour MA (after taking a breather around the level) and is now pushing above the Sept 18 low at the 1.30097 level. Traders will likely eye the 1.30000 level for short term clues. The "natural" technical level, can be a point of failure or can propel a move. I give the benefit of the doubt to the trend/upside.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 38.2-50% of the last trend leg higher (started from just below the 100 hour MA) comes in at 1.2974-84. If the 1.3000 level gives way, this is where the buyers should show up.
The next key target comes in at the 1.3065-76 area. This area has swing lows and swing highs from October 5th to October 13th (see hourly chart). The 38.2% of the move down from the September high (2015 high - highest level since June 2004), comes in at 1.30699 level.
The CAD weakness has fundamental roots in election uncertainty and in lower oil prices. Polls show a Liberal minority but the outcome will not be known until later tonight. Meanwhile oil prices are also contributing to the CAD weakness. WTI Crude is down 2.18%. The low comes in at $45.94. The current price is trading at $46.21.
